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Dreams and Nightmares

I had a dream once about MotoGP. The year was 2011 and Loris Capirossi was racing his last MotoGP race. He was a very talented rider. He was an aggressive rider. He was a champion that others respected and hated.

He also pulled some shit:

The important thing to remember in this clip is that this was the final race of the 1998 season. The 250GP (that’s Moto2 equivalence for you young’ns) championship was decided in the final corner of the final race. Watch the video…I’ll wait.

OK, what else did you notice? Who won the race? #46. Capirossi pulled some shit; Valentino has seem some shit.

Despite all that transpired in the intervening years (if memory serves, there was a change to the rules in 1999 that penalized moves like Capirossi’s), racing is still racing. Racers get up to stuff.

RossiLookingBack

And by stuff, I mean causing other riders to fall. Sometimes they do it on purpose, and sometimes they don’t. Racing is racing. It’s been going on for some time.

Regardless of how you feel about Capirossi, my dream was that in his final GP, the team orders would be out, and that everyone would more or less stop on the final lap to let him go out on a win. His career spanned 21 years. That was my dream. Of course it didn’t happen.

I read somewhere on the net today where a fan was hoping that the proverbial red sea would open at Valencia to allow Valentino to at least get up to the front of the final GP; to fight for his championship.

It’s unlikely to happen. Regardless of whether he can get to the front, Marc Marquez controls the championship. Valentino cannot consistently beat him. He cannot consistently beat Jorge Lorenzo. They’ve been close all year, so there are no guarantees.

Marquez at home? With nothing to lose? He will clear off the front. Lorenzo needs help to win the championship. 7 points to win the championship. He wins on the wins tie breaker. If he wins the race, he needs help. I wonder where Marquez ends up in that battle.

Unless Rossi is right on Jorge’s rear wheel, Marquez can tow Lorenzo around, and then he can bring Rossi’s nightmare to fruition. He can dynamite the breaks at the finish line and let Lorenzo through. 9 points. Championship to Lorenzo.

If Lorenzo has someone between himself and Rossi (Pedrosa at home? He’s won on this track 6 times; Rossi only twice, and the last time was 11 years ago), Marquez can dynamite the brakes, get off his bike at the finish line, and give Rossi a rather rude gesture as he crosses in third, 9 pts back. It would be insult to injury, because Rossi would still lose if Marquez decides to win, and Vale comes in 4th and Lorenzo is in 2nd (7 pts).

Even if Pedrosa clears off the front, putting Lorenzo in second (20 pts), Rossi will most certainly end up in 4th (13 pts) because there is no way (short of being crashed out of the race) Marquez will let him by.

I’m not predicting how any of this will come to pass, but I am guessing that the paddock area of the Valencia GP in a few weeks time will be…tense. Oh, and Lorenzo is your 2015 MotoGP champion.

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How To Hate on Friends and Piss off Colleagues

It’s been a while since I have posted anything about motorcycle racing.  The pre-season testing has finally started, and while I am excited to see Hayden on a Ducati, it would appear the Bologna rocket is not too impressed with the former World Champion.

In reading one of my favorite sites (Kropotkin Thinks), I read this note about Honda introducing rev limiters for their satellite teams.  You see, in the world of racing, you have the haves, and have nots.  The privateer teams generally understand that they are never going to be contending for the win.  Unless they have Tony Elias on the throttle or some Japanese wildcard who is really riding factory equipment (Nori Haga, 1998 anyone?), you have no shot at being on the box.  None.  This is such a predicament that there was talk of running a separate championship within the MotoGP championship.  You know, to have a trophy ceremony for 10th loser.  I’m not dropping hate flakes on the privateers, but you have a choice to run in the series, and you choose to lose to the factories.

With that in mind, however, Honda probably had enough of Andrea Dovizioso crashing the party late in the season.  This year, the boys at Honda will have none of that non-sense.  In the name of “reducing costs” and “maintaining engines for longer life spans,” the satellite teams will find themselves with detuned engines.  Honda basically gave them the finger.

Even better, because there is talk of requiring engines to last 2 weekends in the 2010 season, Honda will be using the satellite teams as logistics testing for the 2009 season, ensuring that parts get where they need to go.  That would be the second finger.

The way Honda treats riders (see Rossi and Hayden departures and the tangled stories of pain they told post exit), and now how they treat their satellite teams, it’s any wonder anyone wants to work with them.  It’s too bad they can field so many bikes, and the green boys have to leave the series and the blue bikes were close to bowing out, if not for the amazing run of Capirossi and Vermuelen at Sepang.

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Why I Love Motorcycle Racing

The PassEvery once in a while, you get two see two artisans at work. Perfection is required in the oft dangerous world of professional motorcycle racing at the highest levels. Occassionally, the mark of a true champion is their ability to improvise, to make do with the inadequacies of their tools, persevere through impossible odds, and insert the most worrisome of emotions into their competitors - doubt. Casey Stoner is surely doubting himself after watching this pass (believe me, the picture really doesn’t do it justice), and then taking his own stroll through the dirt, and dropping his bike. Never mind that Rossi was not reared on dirt bikes like young master Stoner. To see a low speed crash in dirt from a dirt tracker like Stoner can mean only one thing. The acid of doubt is eroding his confidence.

Rossi has taken aggression to his rivals to play mental games with them, often forcing them into retirement. Exhibit A - Max Biaggi. Exhibit B - Sete Gibernau. With Sete, Rossi was so bold as to let the Catalan know that he would never win again. This coming on the heels of a particulary nasty pass Sete placed on The Doctor. Sete never did taste the top step again.

Until now, Rossi has been somewhat deferential to the young Australian, despite his theft of a crown Rossi considered his. Stoner has been smart, and withdrawn from opportunities to pull that tiger by its tail. The tiger is angry, and the psychological games are coming. Stoner is angry, and he’s going to play right into Rossi’s hands. This should make for a very entertaining rest of the year. The only wildcard being that Laguna is a notoriously difficult place to pass, allowing Rossi to neuter any advantage of the Ducati. I’m not so sure that strategy is going to work at the remaining tracks.

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Racing Season Is Back

Short post in the run-up to Daytona, the US motorcycle racing season opener. AMA Superbike action will be back in full swing, and I am sad to say I almost don’t care. Sure, it’s going to be nice to have Yamaha back in the superbike fold, but with the Yoshimura Suzuki boys running rampant, it’s hard to know how anyone will compete. Yates put on quite a show with the Jordan Suzuki last year, but it’s the Mladin/Speis show. It’s possible that Ben will take his eye off the ball, with his move to MotoGP next year all but a done deal, and Mladin, with nothing to race for but soul crushing championship domination, will win out. It should be fun to watch.

Side note - I raced against Spies once. Spies started last on the grid (a split start grid no less) at Road Atlanta, in the rain, and carved his way to third in several laps, ultimately crashing out of that position. I fared slightly better, crashing out of 10th place, ultimately remounting and finishing in the top 20. He was crazy fast then, and it’s nice to see he didn’t rush off to the world level like Hopkins. He’s a good kid, with a bright future.

The support classes are slightly less exciting, and I am sad to say that I can barely tell you who won what class last year. I don’t know what it is, but I care a lot less about domestic racing. I shouldn’t, but I do. I’d really like to see 600 supersport be a class for non-factory riders, with formula extreme being the training ground for future superbike riders. I just don’t get the superstock class at all. In stock form, these bikes are barely slower than the factory superbikes, which begs the questions: what is all the money being spent on, and why is there so little difference. Rider to watch this year for me? Two - Josh Herrin and Roger Lee Hayden.

Surprising to perhaps only a blind man living in a hole, Troy Bayliss has opened the World Superbike season on board the new 1098 Ducati, and is showing how it’s done. Last season was fun to watch for the close racing, but the super sized Ducati engine puts them in the drivers seat once again. New engines mean teething problems, but somehow I think this is going to be a nice, easy season for Baylistic.

MotoGP, on the other hand, is a bit of an unknown. I think that there is little doubt that Stoner is the man to beat this year. If he manages to keep his “win it or bin it” mentality in check, and keeps the rubber side down, I don’t know how anyone beats him. What’s so amazing about Stoner is that he’s the only fast Ducati in the field. Others have tried and failed, and he seems to be the only one to get the Bologna bullet round the race track.

With the new rookies in MotoGP, there are ten former world champions in the field. Who says that it’s not the best field in racing? Spec tire rules be damned! If Rossi can’t win on the Bridestones, he owes a *huge* apology to Stoner and the rest of the world for even insinuating the Ducati had an unfair advantage last year.

I’ve missed racing in the off season and am looking forward to it getting back in full swing.